Developing on Market to Market – carefully watched financial studies carry out the bears on Wall avenue. Tainted lettuce sickens 1000s of buyers, however authorities don’t seem to be disclosing its producer. And in yet yet another 12 months dominated by means of exclusive weather, hay producers wrestle to make a crop. Those experiences and market evaluation with Jamey Kohake, subsequent. Market to Market is a construction of Iowa Public television which is completely accountable for its content material. Funding for Market to Market is provided by DuPont Pioneer, working with growers to match the proper product to the right acre.Science with carrier, delivering success. That is the Friday, August 2 version of Market to Market, the Weekly Journal of Rural the us. Hey. I am Mike Pearson. The U.S. Financial system has created an normal of 200,000 jobs monthly this 12 months, but the brisk p.C. Of hiring in the spring is slowing this summer time. The federal government said Friday that U.S. Employers delivered 162,000 positions to their payrolls in July within the weakest month of job construction seeing that March. The us’s unemployment cost fell to a 4 1/2-year low of seven.Four percentage. Whilst acknowledging that extra employees found jobs, analysts stated the 2-tenths of factor growth additionally was because others stopped looking for work, and hence have been now not counted as unemployed. The record awakened hibernating bears on Wall avenue, where the main indices all declined on the information earlier than paring losses later within the session Friday. One day previous, the government stated the U.S. Economy — as measured by gross home product — grew at a lackluster 1.7 percentage annual cost within the 2nd quarter.That was once better than a revised 1.1 percent within the first quarter, but it’s still some distance too sluggish to make a serious dent in unemployment. And the Federal Reserve stated this week it is too early to assert when it’s going to start tapering its month-to-month purchases of $85 billion worth of bonds, which aid preserve interest charges low in hopes of stimulating the financial system. No one rather knows how the markets will react to the top of the Fed stimulus, but the mere advice of the taper has been bearish – however that it alerts a more healthy economy.Uncertainty would be found within the produce aisle as good this week after an outbreak of foodborne illness was traced to a parasite in lettuce. Baggage of salad are on the middle of the cyclospora outbreak consistent with health officers in a pair of Midwestern states. Well being officials in Nebraska and Iowa say they’ve traced cases to prepackaged salad, but they haven’t stated which company or where it was once sold, explaining handiest that the majority — if not all the product-was once no longer grown in the community.In Iowa, nearly one hundred fifty folks were sickened by way of the worm. Nevertheless, officers say the chance is over and the affected salad is now not in the food chain. However federal authorities caution it could be too early to say that the danger is over. Nebraska investigators mentioned the salad combine in query included iceberg and romaine lettuce, together with pink cabbage and carrots that moved by way of countrywide distribution chains. The rare parasite, cyclospora, poses a wellbeing threat when humans ingest meals or water contaminated with feces. People exposed mostly grow to be sick after a few week and have flu-like symptoms that may last at any place from a couple of days to a month, if left untreated. Dr. Andi Shane: "Cyclospora is exact that it’s a parasite and considering it exists on this very hardy cyst type it can be way more resistant to washing and events methods that persons may use before drinking their produce." All instructed, just about 400 men and women in 15 states had been sickened with the prolonged, intestinal ailment.Food protection advocates say that lack of specifics being released issues them. They need businesses accountable to be held in charge when outbreaks happen. And, they add patrons want the information about where outbreaks originated to make food picks. California presents a lot of the nation’s leafy inexperienced produce and wellness officers there have not got any experiences of cyclospora. Wellbeing officials propose short of developing your possess food, fending off a deadly disease could also be problematical. They usually say, all meals, whether local, common or healthy, has the competencies to be exposed to security risks on the farm, in transit or within the retailer. Cooler temperatures and scattered showers delivered a lot-wanted moisture to parts of the Corn Belt this week. Severe thunderstorms roared across northern Nebraska Thursday, as winds of up to one hundred miles per hour pelted some areas with baseball-sized hail. Portions of Kansas also acquired greater than 5" of rain late this week. In spite of whether any precise area got rain or now not, stipulations – in most areas – are a lot extended from last 12 months when the worst drought in half a century devastated vegetation – as good as pasture and rangeland.And as Ashley Davis learned this week, the variables are exceptional this yr, however producers are doing their excellent to "make hay whilst the sun shines." Paul Yeager explains. Farmers have persevered the usand the downs of mother Nature this year. With snow in may just, planting delays due to wet stipulations, and a midsummer dry spell, corn, beans, and other crops have suffered. Hay producers also struggled this spring due to power rain. Dale Leslein, an auctioneer and supervisor on the Dyersville income corporation in northeast, Iowa, has seen plenty of broken and wet hay come via his auction this summer time. With forage coming from all over the Midwest, Washington, Wyoming and even Canada, Leslein knows all too good how stipulations are affecting this year’s hay crop.Dale Leslein: "The first-rate is down due to the fact last year we had ultimate conditions in a drought yr that you can get the hay baled dry. And this year the farmers are struggling to get the hay made appropriately. And we now have had a lot of rain, a lot of premature rain and in addition producers have not been in a position to reduce their hay on a commonplace 28 or 30 day agenda. They’ve needed to be at the mercy of the climate so it is affecting high-quality and it will influence range as well." The scorching summer of 2012 made for a dry crop season, which wasn’t a wholly unhealthy thing for hay producers. Demand was high, but the give was brief which triggered costs to skyrocket. This week at the Dyersville Hay auction, a second crop of mixed orchard grass and alfalfa bought for a high price of $280 per ton. Dale Leslein: "We got quite a few moist hay quite a lot of its large squares which lift a pair hundred kilos per bale. Further moisture on it and the shelf life on that hay is not very lengthy and we noticed the wet hay sell at a deduction in these days and the nice dry hay promote at a top class." in the case of the main vegetation produced in the U.S., hay ranks behind corn and soybeans.But hay is much more labor intensive. Joel Van Wyk produces corn, soybeans and hay near Sully, Iowa. Van Wyk believes the market price of hay and the extent of drawback that incorporates producing it usually is causing some individuals to modify from hay to row crops. Joel Van Wyk: "Its sort of a mission to place up just right hay, it isn’t effortless. Some years most likely work better than others, however it’s a project." regardless of the tough work, Van Wyk plans to proceed developing hay. Joel Van Wyk: "there is simply no longer enough hay to satisfy the demand proper now. There’s more people that are buying hay than are growing hay." because of delays this season, many Midwest hay producers are simply on their second cutting – some are on their 0.33 cutting.And as typical, weather conditions proceed to be the x-element. According to Leslein, between April and July of 2012, hay costs shot up 350% – going from $7- per ton to $300 per ton. Weather, and the balance of provide and demand, will play a significant role for hay conditions this summer season. Dale Leslein: "we want a little more wind and we need some warmth once more. It can be been very cool the last week. Hay’s been mendacity a week now and we have now document low temperatures. That is October weather; this is not July climate or early August. We just want a little higher weather conditions in any case it might be exceptional if we might get some first-class warm sunny days and 10-15 mph wind and get some very good hay made. If we are able to get a couple of week without any rain." For Market to Market, i am Paul Yeager.Grain costs were blended this week as powerful demand supported wheat, even as scattered showers and an making improvements to weather outlook forced corn. For the week, September wheat recovered most of final week’s losses with a obtain of 10 cents, at the same time the regional corn contract moved sixteen cents scale down. Soybeans, nevertheless, printed the entire affect of bettering climate because the September contract settled with a weekly lack of 63 cents. Local meal prices followed go well with giving up nearly $20 per ton. In the softs, cotton traded in a sideways trend because the December contract shed 14 cents per hundredweight. In the dairy market, September classification III milk declined by using 15 cents at the same time the October contract was once unchanged. Over in cattle, October cattle misplaced $1.38. Regional feeders developed through $1. And the October lean hog contract posted a weekly lack of eighty five cents. In the financials, the Euro won 9 groundwork points in opposition to the greenback. Crude oil advanced with the aid of $2.25 per barrel. Comex Gold declined by using $11 per ounce. And the Goldman Sachs Commodity Index won more than 5 points to settle at 642.65. Pearson: right here now to lend his perception on these and different trends is one among our commonplace market analysts, Jamey Kohake.Jamey, welcome again. Kohake: thanks, Mike. Pearson: Let’s get correct into this, this week. As we take a appear on the wheat market we did see a great rebound this week. What was riding that? Specifically export news? Kohake: The demand market is excellent right now for the wheat sector. There’s additionally a lot of spread motion versus corn, long wheat, short corn, that transfer to new highs for this transfer this week as well. However the bigger story in wheat has been with China. They have misplaced somewhere around roughly 20% of their crop. So there may be all these expectations, forecasting going on that China shall be a enormous importer of wheat.Additionally the seasonals have grew to become a bit bit more bullish as good. We’re generally accomplished with the difficult purple wintry weather harvest and seasonally we start to see a rebound then. But if I was once going to decide upon one grain to get long on it might be wheat headquartered off of demand. The wild card goes to be the U.S. Dollar. You saw that tick there mid-week. I do not believe the dollar hangs on long-time period however it is whatever to watch out for. However I do like shopping wheat on breaks. I’d buy the $6.60 mark off the December Chicago contract. Pearson: And keep for what variety of a high finish do you see within the wheat market? Kohake: I suppose $7.00 could be pushing it correct now just when you consider that there’s numerous weak point in the other grain pits and that i feel it would be hard to particularly preserve a rally on wheat on its own right now.Pearson: however it might be shrewd to get in there on a destroy, sell off after we get a rally, starts to get a bit toppy? Kohake: Yeah. Mm-hmm. But watch demand, it is all demand proper now and the lengthy-time period snapshot does look lovely supportive. Pearson: Now, when will we seeing purchases from China to fulfill their 20% that they’re down? Kohake: I believe it is going to here soon, proceed all of the approach through iciness. It can be a long run snapshot and it’s a bullish image long-time period and get the greenback to weaken up as good too, expand some new demand out of Egypt as well and we would relatively be having a fine wheat market, you realize, this winter again.Pearson: And matters may have grew to become round from this last 12 months when exports have been a bit of gentle. Kohake: Exports were gentle and we didn’t attract any trade in any respect worldwide. Pearson: alright, good probably we’ll see a change there. Now, as we take a seem at the corn market we did see corn proceed the unload this week. Again, above all driven by weather. Kohake: Yeah, it can be the same historical news pretty much with corn and with beans. No threatening weather at all in the forecast, no factors commonly at curious about the funds to to cover their shorts. Funds are brief roughly 120,000 contracts proper now. And with no reason why, you recognize, for a new catalyst to get out the trend stays down. We do have a good sized report coming out in ten days. I’m anticipating a bit of little bit of quick protecting late next week, perhaps push it again to the $4.80s, $four.90 field however the rallies correct now are going to be quick-lived.It can be all going to be short covering. I don’t see a whole lot of new cash coming in correct now. I suppose it can be by and large early fall when that occurs once we recognize extra about acres, we all know more about crop size. But the market looks to be right now just looking to stretch the rubber band so far as viable and spot what occurs. And it appears like we’re heading to $four.50 here soon. Pearson: $4.50. So, now, from the producer’s perspective, might be they have not offered the entire bushels they were hoping to market this summer time, exceptional wager just to attend. I mean, do you feel we’ll turn out to be seeing $four.50 as a ground? Could see a rebound relying on harvest? Kohake: Yeah, I suppose we would. It would be the October time interval I suppose when that would begin, when we’ve some extra factual groundwork or a greater image of do we have a 14 or 15 billion crop measurement? I consider we’re a couple of 13.7, 13.9 correct now.However we need extra I consider earlier than the bulls come back out and try to push this factor greater. But for producers seem on the March. There’s a little bit of carryout into March. If we can get a short-time period leap as much as $5.00 in that i would take a short-time period sell there as well. Additionally watch the crimson December, December ’15 contract if you’re a producer, get again up, you understand, that $5.10 mark i would take a sell there. We broke the $5.00 mark here this week in the Dec ’15 so it needs to be watched as good actual carefully. Pearson: Now, as you mentioned, we have now bought the document on the twelfth of this month. Any recommendation for producers as we get into that considering it usually will likely be an extra dicy record? Kohake: it’s going to be a market mover as normal. I might maintain shorts. I don’t like, you already know, selling $4.60 right off the bat come Sunday night time or Monday if that is the case. I might, you already know, possibly preserve off mid to late week to see if we will get some revenue taking coming into the document and check out to lay some more off then.But the market is oversold, the trend is down, there may be nothing within the forecast to change the quick-term picture right now. But i would maintain off chasing this factor minimize just founded off technicals. Pearson: okay. Alright. Now, as we take a seem at soybeans we’ve got misplaced $1.10 on the board the previous two weeks. Is this a downturn that — can we see the bottom from the place we’re at today do you suppose? Kohake: well, it was an unpleasant trade at present technically. We broke the spring lows, $eleven.85 and induced some stops. Not a ton of stops however it did set off that. It’s the identical photograph right here as in corn, just nothing on the horizon weather sensible to draw any contemporary cash.And that i feel we will get back to $12.00. A man would sell into that here quick-term. However it’s the identical thing with corn, plenty of uncertainty. I believe we’ll get a good play off beans with the acreage quantity being readjusted. We’ll see in ten days. But right here proper now we stay beneath eighty five, techincals are bearish and it looks like we might be pushing towards $eleven.Forty. That’s the double backside low back in June of 2012. So that would be, you know, the long term extension down too. But beans are definitely an August crop, a lot of uncertainty but so we would see $12.40 discipline to promote back into. However we’d like a catalyst, we’d like some weather or the trend is down here with the corn market. Pearson: very well, now as we seem on the demand picture for soybeans, we mentioned that is been — there is been a just right story in the back of beans all year. What are you seeing demand smart, particularly from China and Asia at big? Does demand seem strong for the leisure of this yr? Kohake: It looks regular.China has been shopping. I think they are going to purchase extra right here on this destroy that we’ve obvious. Equal means with the corn, I believe we can appeal to fresh export trade down right here at these phases. But the problem is there may be just no new money coming in. It sidelined — it can be a low volume exchange here the last few days at times and there’s simply nothing new in any respect to draw any short masking.The export business is customarily routine and the weather simply has many of the cash scared proper now and sidelined or you are short and it can be simply type of a lackluster pattern is down and get out of the way in which generally. Pearson: all right, and we’re watching cool and wet for the foreseeable future on the most latest forecast? Is that what you might have seen? Kohake: 10 to 15 day is below traditional temps, normal rain so yeah, there may be not anything available in the market besides this coming report a week from Monday, you understand, that might shake the market up. The market is oversold and it would be a first-rate time to relatively start to flush some shorts out if there is a bullish quantity there.Pearson: o.K.. Now, one of the most things — has the trade started to do not forget the danger of an early frost? I’ve heard producers talking about that not too long ago. Is that beginning to weigh in the marketplace’s mind at all? Kohake: It has now not yet. I feel a good way to come Labor Day time interval when guys who could need to to buy some calls, you already know, lighten up some shorts possibly relying on what the forecast does seem like.The crop is absolutely late, principally the corn, so yeah, there is time in the market to be ready to get a fall rally yet off of weather. Pearson: but figuring out that there is not, for producers again, same question as in corn, maybe they wouldn’t have all the beans they’d like marketed. Knowing that $eleven.40 might be the subsequent technical backside would this be a promoting opportunity? Kohake: I consider in the event you push back in the direction of $12.00 area i’d do some thing there. I think beans have more time, , than corn to relatively get nervous about, see a new forecast the subsequent three or four days, if there’s any warmness at all in the photograph.Cash are nonetheless long beans and so I feel they are going to safeguard their positions a bit of bit better than what is going on in the corn market proper now. Pearson: very well. Now let’s take a appear at the livestock market. We did see are living cattle dump a bit bit this week on the Mercantile trade. And now we have still seen the cash market protecting steady at about $119. What does the longer term seem like for fats cattle? Kohake: Yeah, the $119 alternate this week was disappointing. The asking cost is up around $1.22 early on, the $119 did pull some money back out of the market. Exhibit lists had been giant, weights are up, four pounds in comparison with last week, seven kilos in comparison with a year in the past and a 12 months in the past the weights had been a report.And so all that kind of overhanging the market. Bins too are again to the place they had been back in February. And so that all sort of weighed available on the market. The market did get a bit bit oversold, we did see a little bit bit of technical balance late in the week. I do not see cattle doing a whole lot proper now brief-time period. I believe we’re variety certain at $124, $126 for the October contract, leap backward and forward in there. Long run a bit more bullish but here short-term I just don’t see a entire lot taking place. Pearson: just not a variety of upside and there’s no real occasion on the horizon that could spark us to get a brand new surge prominent is there? I imply, there’s nothing in the market that the trade is looking at to look if we are able to get these costs juiced.Kohake: We would get some maybe a bit bit more demand from Asia, Japan, whatever like that. However correct now I suppose the extra pleasure is surely in the feeder pits. They’ve been on a $10 rally and so the money a bit bit has flowed over into there. However the money market most of the time just being constant, i don’t see a entire lot taking place proper now in the cattle. Long run i am nonetheless bullish. Pearson: all right. Now, you mentioned feeders. Let’s speak about that for the reason that feeders have been a compelling story for the previous six weeks rather, feeders had been on a tear. Kohake: Even the final few months. Pearson: Yeah, the place do you see that headed? Kohake: long term i am still bullish feeders. I’d now not get lengthy up in here.I want to see November pull again round $one hundred fifty five, $one hundred sixty — $155.60, $156 discipline to get long. But I consider this can be a long term bullish story. We have now had some decent rains down in northern Texas, you realize, final 30, 45 days, they have been replenished in a variety of that field and the corn market certainly being the massive element there. However I like the feeders. I’d buy breaks right here short-term. Pearson: And now if we keep, if this corn market does proceed to fall, if we get right down to the stages you mentioned, that $4.50 variety, even sub that, how so much upside does that give the feeder market realizing that money fat are nonetheless at round $119? Kohake: Yeah, I think the talk will probably be back to the place we had been before.There will likely be $160s walking around within the newsletters and talk everywhere. But I believe we will need some demand to maintain it. However seem to get lengthy on a pull back, i don’t like buying up here at $158, $159 subject. Pearson: all right, just let it purchase on a wreck as we get down as you recounted $156, $a hundred and fifty five.60, down in that neck of the woods. All right. Now, as we take a look at the hog market, that’s an additional market that has been on a lovely excellent run here the final couple of months.This week we saw a pull again. Where do you see hogs headed? Have we topped out on the hog market? Kohake: i’m just a little bit bearish on the hogs. I like promoting the October up round $85.Ninety. That is considered one of my extra favorite trades proper now. I do not see the cash market placing in longer term. We did have a good alternate this week now and then, cash looks to be ordinarily steady beginning out subsequent week however i do not feel the money holds in here long term.I’d seem to be selling rallies. One thing a hog producer does must look out for are these deferred contracts out of the primary and 2nd quarter of subsequent 12 months. There may be quite a lot of enlargement speak with this cheaper corn market so do not fall asleep and just exchange nearbys, watch these fall, spring contracts. Pearson: be aware of your margins and if that you would be able to lock in a profit that far upfront take capabilities of it. Kohake: Take knowledge of it and do not let this slip by means of on right here with this corn market being shaky here normally for one other three or four weeks. Pearson: Now, how low do you see hogs getting looking at the deliver-demand eventualities available in the market? What have you ever heard? Kohake: I would see October slipping down round $eighty, $81 area.I do know that a gigantic move but somewhat bit bearish out into the nearby hogs right here quick-time period. There’s been some speak out of Chicago speakme the $70s. I’m not that bearish yet. I’d like to see, you understand, grain costs and the demand right here this fall however selling rallies I think is an effective suggestion here in the hogs quick-term. Pearson: Take talents of it. Now, let’s talk somewhat bit about the dairy market. We’ve been, once more, variety sure as we look at milk costs. The place do you feel milk is headed? Kohake: i’m a little bit bearish here too, Mike. I admire October milk up round $18.Ninety. That’s roughly the 100 day moving typical, $18.Eighty area and i’d sell into that. We saw the June milk document this week, it was bearish however it gave the look to be factored into the market. So i might form of toss that out the window right now and simply go back to promoting rallies here quick-time period. Pearson: promote the rallies and be all set as you were pronouncing prior.Kohake: Yeah. Pearson: very well. Well, thank you a lot for being with us, Jamey. Quite respect you taking the time. That wraps up this variation of Market to Market. But we will proceed the dialogue online and answer some of your questions in our Market Plus section on our internet site. You can in finding audio podcasts and streaming video of our program as well as hyperlinks to our Twitter feed and fb account all free at the Market to Market website. Be certain to become a member of us again next week after we’ll compare the federal government’s ultra-modern numbers on agricultural trade. Unless then, thanks for gazing.I am Mike Pearson. Have a best week. Market to Market is a construction of Iowa Public tv which is completely dependable for its content. Funding for Market to Market is supplied with the aid of DuPont Pioneer, working with growers to match the right product to the correct acre. Science with carrier, delivering success..

Market to Market (August 2, 2013)